Porter's 5 Forces in the Automobile Industry
Porter's Five Forces, also known as P5F, is a way of examining the
attractiveness of an industry. It does so by looking at five forces
which act on that industry. These forces are determinants of that
industry's profitability.
The forces are:
1. The threat of new entrants
In the auto manufacturing industry, this is generally a very low threat.
Factors to examine for this threat include all barriers to entry such
as upfront capital requirements (it costs a lot to set up a car
manufacturing facility!), brand equity (a new firm may have none),
legislation and government policy (think safety, EPA and emissions),
ability to distribute the product (Alfa Romeo has been out of the US
since the early 90s largely due to the inability to re-establish a
dealer network. But if you are looking at Singapore, for example, only
one Alfa Romeo dealer is needed!).
2. The bargaining power of buyers/customers
Who in the US has ever bought a car without bargaining? Anybody? In 2009
especially, US dealers were giving great deals to buyers to get the
industry moving. While quantity a buyer purchases is usually a good
factor in determining this force, even in the automotive industry when
buyers only usually purchase one car at a time, they still wield
considerable power.
However, this may be different in other markets. In Singapore it sure is
lower than in the US, creating a more favorable situation for the
industry but not the buyers.
Generally, however, it's safe to say the customers have some buying power, but it depends on the market.
3. The threat of substitute products
If buyers can look to the competition or other comparable products, and
switch easily (they have low switching costs) there may be a high threat
of this force. With new cars, the switching cost is high because you
can't sell a brand new car for the same price you paid for it. A P5F
analysis of the car industry covers the new market, not used or
second-hand.
But what about the threat of substitute products before the buyer makes
the purchase? You need to know whether the market you are analyzing has
many good alternatives to new cars. A vibrant used car market perhaps?
Used cars threaten the new market. How about a very good
mass-transportation system?
Product differentiation is important too. In the car industry, typically
there are many cars that are similar - just look at any mid-range
Toyota and you can easily find a very similar Nissan, Honda, or Mazda.
However, if you are looking at amphibious cars, there may be little
threat of substitute products (this is an extreme example!).
4. The amount of bargaining power suppliers have
In the car industry this refers to all the suppliers of parts, tires,
components, electronics, and even the assembly line workers (auto
unions!). We know in the US the auto unions are tremendously powerful.
But we also know that some suppliers are small firms who rely on the
car makers, and may only have one car maker as a client. So this force can
be tricky to evaluate.
5. The intensity of the competitive rivalry (which is in part determined by 1-4)
We know that in most countries all carmakers are engaged in fierce
competition. Tit-for-tat price slashes, ad campaigns, and product
developments keep them on the edge of innovation and profitability.
Margins are low and pressure between rivals is high.
All major car-producing nations experience this intense rivalry. This
obviously includes the US, Japan, Italy, France, the UK, Germany, China,
India, and more.
State-owned car manufacturers like Proton in Malaysia experience less rivalry but are still under pressure from imports.
While a P5F analysis applies to all companies competing in one industry
(and market) the same, what differs is that those firms' profitability
will vary between them. This is because of their own competitive
advantages and varying business models. So just because all firms in one
industry and market are subject to the same forces doesn't mean they
perform equally.
A P5F analysis should always be done in conjunction with other
assessments, and should not be regarded as being absolute. It should
only serve as an indicator, not absolute fact or even necessarily
accurate.
There are many critical assumptions that should be made and explained in
one's P5F analysis. The market must be described, the competition must
be explained, and the products must be defined.
For example, a P5F analysis of the car industry in the US would not
necessarily apply in China. The markets are totally different, and the
product life cycle is not even close to being the same.
Another example is the type of automotive industry. A P5F analysis of
the electric car industry would be entirely different than one of the
conventional car industry.
A summary of the findings is below:
1. There is low threat of new entrants
2. The bargaining power of buyers/customers is low
3. Suppliers do not have much bargaining power
The bargaining power of suppliers and threat of new entrants are
moderate, which is not very favorable to industry profitability. It
should be noted, however, that the bargaining power of suppliers may be
induced upon them by force, as if they stop supplying it is not because
they have money and are threatening the automakers, but because they
cannot afford to keep assembly lines open. This creates a negative-sum
game, hurting both parties. It could force the automakers to rescue the
suppliers.
In summary, the industry is unfavorable to profitability.